Universal access to GLP-1s could halve global obesity prevalence in 5 years, study finds
Key takeaways:
- Universal access to GLP-1 therapies could reduce the prevalence of obesity by up to 52% in eligible populations.
- Widened access is also estimated to lower global all-cause mortality.
CHICAGO — Universal access to GLP-1 receptor agonists for eligible populations could reduce global obesity prevalence by half and save 37 million lives over 5 years, according to new research.
Elizabeth Staton, a fourth-year PhD candidate in the Emory Global Diabetes Research Center, within the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University, presented results of a global epidemiology multimorbidity microsimulation study of universal GLP-1 access in 225 countries.
Allowing all eligible patients with obesity to have access to a GLP-1 could greatly reduce the global prevalence of obesity. Image: Adobe Stock
“There has been a lot of interest in GLP-1s and how they seem so effective and widely beneficial, but it wasn’t yet quantified what would be that impact on a global level. We found a probability study … [but] it wasn’t very rigorous,” Staton told Healio. “We took it upon ourselves to conduct a microsimulation model with multiple disease risk equations based on country, sex, age, incidence rates of disease as well as prevalence. We put this all into a 5-year model … to define that question of what the global impact on a number of key cardiometabolic and mortality outcomes with universal access to GLP-1s would be. The joy of microsimulation is that it’s not really a realistic scenario, but it’s an interesting one to explore.”
The researchers’ microsimulation model included approximately 6.57 billion individuals aged at least 12 years. The researchers gathered baseline health and annual transition probabilities using 2021 Global Burden of Disease and Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration studies. The researchers evaluated those eligible for treatment with semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk), with eligibility defined as obesity and age of at least 12 years or type 2 diabetes, overweight and age of at least 18 years.
“I work in a research group in the Emory Global Diabetes Research Center with Hui Shao, PhD, who has a very well-validated Bravo model of diabetes complications. Stemming from that, I’ve created a global epidemiology multimorbidity microsimulation model, which we call the GEM model. This uses peer-reviewed studies for risk ratios, … So then our estimates are slightly more rigorous,” Staton told Healio. “Because it’s a microsimulation, we have individual level data, so we can just subset into people who would fit in the cohort studies. Then we compare our estimates that are predicted vs. the actual cohort studies.”
Based on their analysis, Staton and colleagues estimated there to be more than 1 billion people globally who are eligible for semaglutide.
This model was validated against prospective cohort studies and previously established probability models.
The researchers estimated that universal access to GLP-1s could reduce the prevalence of obesity by approximately 52%, translating to an absolute decrease of 9.03 percentage points, potentially affecting up to 565 million people, according to the results.
Moreover, the effects of universal access to GLP-1s were estimated to reduce all-cause mortality by nearly 7%, with an absolute decrease of 0.6 percentage points, affecting approximately 37.5 million individuals, according to the poster.
“I hope these data move the conversation about global access forward. There are a number of reasons why access to GLP-1s are limited, with costs, supply and access to providers who prescribe them,” Staton told Healio. “The compelling finding is that obesity would be reduced by almost 50% [and] mortality reduced by about 7% globally. These are hugely impactful [estimations] in just a 5-year time horizon. I hope it will motivate greater investment in policy movement and drug price reductions.”
Sources/Disclosures
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Staton E, et al. 2043-LB. Presented at: American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions; June 20-23, 2025; Chicago.
Disclosures:
Staton reports no relevant financial disclosures.
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